Background

Scenario planning is an approach to strategic thinking about the future. Scenarios are a way of describing alternative, plausible futures based on different combinations of facts, trends and informed assumptions.  Scenario planning is not about predicting the future, but a tool to help plan and prepare for it.

A series of scenarios or 'stories', usually four, provide different views on the same general topic and by considering all four, an organisation, community or group with common purpose can better understand and explore the options, opportunities and issues.

In the context of Environment Education, scenario planning can be used as part of a suite of futures thinking tools to explore the concepts of sustainability and what that means to people as individuals and as members of different communities – school, workplace, organisation, local to global, and to their future.

Over the past four years in Goulburn Broken Catchment, scenario planning has been used to explore possible futures for irrigated agriculture which underpins the prosperity and well-being of the region.

The prolonged dry conditions over the past decade, current drought and predicted drier climate due to climate change poses significant challenges to the future of the region. Northern Victoria around Shepparton and north west towards Swan Hill is known as the ‘food bowl’ with most of the production dependent on the extensive irrigation system.

Scenario planning enabled representatives from key organisations and the community, farmers, scientists (see Career Profile), geographers, social scientists and economists to consider the factors that will or might influence the future of irrigated agriculture. From these investigations, a series of scenarios or stories describing four possible futures for the region were written.  They can be used to inform strategic planning and management.

LandLearn has undertaken development of a curriculum resource based on the Goulburn Broken Irrigation Futures project and this learning activity is an adaptation of others in the resource.

Summary

The activity encourages consideration of the consequences of a drier climate. It can be used to introduce a unit of study on climate change or water use and management or other themes related to sustainable futures.

Student outcomes

Students will be able to:

• consider the consequences of a drier climate at an individual level and for the community
• share and discuss ideas with others to further develop and expand their own thinking
• use a futures wheel to graphically present their ideas.

Duration and setting

Two to three hours in the classroom.

next» Futures Thinking: Planning for a Drier Climate - Part 2